Whether you’re talking about sports betting, casino games, or poker, the term “long term” refers to the overall profitability over prolonged periods of time. The assumption is that, in the long term, the importance of variance decreases to the point it’s no longer significant, which means that things like individual skill, rake or house edge become the factors that determine whether the form of gambling in question is profitable or not.
1. “You might get lucky and win a few hands by going all-in with two-seven pre-flop, but if you keep playing No Limit Hold’em like that you’re going to lose your bankroll in the long term.”
2. “Casino games allow you be a short-term winner due to variance, but in the long term the house edge is going to grind you down.”
In the long term, the world’s most profitable live tournament poker player is Antonio Esfandiari, who won over $24 million over the course of ten years. Esfandiari’s career took off in 2004, when he won about $1.4 million and his first World Poker Tour title at the first L.A. Poker Classic. He went on to win his first World Series of Poker bracelet a few months later.